Santos 0–6 Leo Victor: Result & Stats

Santos

FT

0 – 6

Leo Victor

8/6/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 20Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santos19%

×Draw17%

Leo Victor64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchLeo Victor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

2.79

Santos

1.49

Leo Victor

2.79

Leo Victor creates 87% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 57 away

1.38

creates per match

1.79

3.79

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Santos

1.38

Leo Victor

1.79

allows per match

Santos

3.79

Leo Victor

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos+0.00on par

Leo Victor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Leo Victor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Santos or draw

36%

Santos or Leo Victor

83%

Draw or Leo Victor

81%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

8%

Leo Victor wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

77%

Santos 2+ goals

44%

Santos 3+ goals

19%

Leo Victor 1+ goals

94%

Leo Victor 2+ goals

76%

Leo Victor 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

23%

Leo Victor (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 3.79 · 29 matches

Leo Victor away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.38 + Leo Victor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Leo Victor attack 1.79 + Santos defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Santos scores more

19%

level

17%

Leo Victor scores more

64%

Leo Victor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Leo Victor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff