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Leo Victor vs Santos — Eerste Divisie 2019

Leo Victor
Leo Victor
FT
8 – 0
Santos
Santos
2/4/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 4Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Leo Victor68%
×Draw16%
Santos15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leo Victor
2.78
Santos
1.26

Leo Victor creates 121% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 27 away

creates per match

Leo Victor
1.82
Santos
0.93

allows per match

Leo Victor
1.59
Santos
3.74

finishing

Leo Victor+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leo Victor ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Leo Victor or draw
85%
Leo Victor or Santos
84%
Draw or Santos
32%

Winning margin

Leo Victor wins by 2+
48%
Santos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Leo Victor 1+ goals
94%
Leo Victor 2+ goals
76%
Leo Victor 3+ goals
51%
Santos 1+ goals
72%
Santos 2+ goals
36%
Santos 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Leo Victor (draw refunded)
82%
Santos (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leo Victor at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Santos away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leo Victor attack 1.82 + Santos defence 3.74 → ÷2 → 2.78

Santos attack 0.93 + Leo Victor defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Leo Victor scores more
68%
level
16%
Santos scores more
15%

Leo Victor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Leo Victor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leo Victor vs Santos

Leo Victor beat Santos 8-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.