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Santos vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Santos
Santos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
M. Zunino 66'
12/1/2020CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 8th FinalsEstádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Santos59%
×Draw24%
LDU de Quito17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
1.70
LDU de Quito
0.78

Santos creates 118% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 24 away

creates per match

Santos
1.82
LDU de Quito
0.83

allows per match

Santos
0.73
LDU de Quito
1.58

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santos or draw
83%
Santos or LDU de Quito
76%
Draw or LDU de Quito
41%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
33%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
82%
Santos 2+ goals
51%
Santos 3+ goals
24%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
54%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
18%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
78%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.82 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Santos defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Santos scores more
59%
level
24%
LDU de Quito scores more
17%

Santos at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
ParáSantosSantos · D
7.6

Match Events

45'
Alison
46'
M. Ayala
54'
P. Perlaza← M. Zunino
57'
M. Ayala← C. Cruz
57'
B. Arce← M. Caicedo
59'
Y. Soteldo
66'
M. Zunino
70'
Bruninho← Bruninho
82'
Y. Soteldo← Sandry
82'
L. Braga← Madson
83'
L. Villarruel← R. Aguirre
87'
Felipe Jonatan← Wagner Leonardo
89'
L. Caicedo
90+2'
Wagner Leonardo
90+12'
R. Aguirre
90+22'
Felipe L.
90+23'
John
90+23'
L.

Possession

52%Santos

Shots

18Santos

Pass accuracy

51%Santos

Statistics

SantosLDU
Overview
52%Possession48%
18Total Shots12
6Corners2
14Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots12
2On Target3
13Off Target6
3Blocked3
8Inside Box5
10Outside Box7
Passing
52%Possession48%
356Total Passes326
289Accurate Passes257
81%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls13
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards2
0Offsides3

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Santos 0–1 LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat Santos 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on December 1, 2020.

Goals: M. Zunino (66').

Santos controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Santos, São Paulo.