LDU de Quito 1–2 Santos: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Santos

J. Julio 45+2'

Marinho 59' (pen)

Y. Soteldo 7'

11/24/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 8th FinalsEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

LDU de Quito55%

×Draw23%

Santos22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchSantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.04

LDU de Quito

1.81

Santos

1.04

LDU de Quito creates 74% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 12 away

2.29

creates per match

1.33

0.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.29

Santos

1.33

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.75

Santos

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Santos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

78%

LDU de Quito or Santos

77%

Draw or Santos

45%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

31%

Santos wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

84%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

54%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

27%

Santos 1+ goals

65%

Santos 2+ goals

28%

Santos 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

72%

Santos (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Santos away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Santos defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Santos attack 1.33 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

55%

level

23%

Santos scores more

22%

LDU de Quito at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Marinho

Santos · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

Y. Soteldo↳ Para

32'

E. Vega

40'

L. Felipe

45+1'

J. Mota← Wagner Leonardo

45+2'

J. Julio

46'

C. Cruz← M. Ayala

49'

Wagner Leonardo

56'

J. Quinteros← R. Aguirre

59'

MarinhoPenalty

62'

J. Alcivar

76'

E. Vega← M. Caicedo

80'

Felipe Jonatan

81'

Felipe Jonatan← L. Braga

82'

R. Aguirre

85'

Y. Soteldo

89'

Marinho← L. Lourenco

89'

Y. Soteldo← Vinicius

90+4'

P. Perlaza← M. Zunino

90+9'

A. Ordonez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUSantos

Overview

65%Possession35%

16Total Shots9

5Corners5

17Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots9

6On Target6

2Off Target3

8Blocked0

7Inside Box5

9Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

493Total Passes269

434Accurate Passes210

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0