Santos 3–1 Juventude: Result & Stats | Serie A

Santos

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Juventude

Neymar 80' (pen), 37'

A. Barreal 40'

W. Angel 45'

8/4/2025

Serie A · Round 18Estadio Do MorumBIS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Santos53%

×Draw25%

Juventude22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.94

Santos

1.61

Juventude

0.94

Santos creates 71% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 38 away

1.41

creates per match

0.86

1.02

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Santos

1.41

Juventude

0.86

allows per match

Santos

1.02

Juventude

1.82

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Santos-0.01on par

Juventude+0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santos or draw

78%

Santos or Juventude

75%

Draw or Juventude

47%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

28%

Juventude wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

80%

Santos 2+ goals

48%

Santos 3+ goals

22%

Juventude 1+ goals

61%

Juventude 2+ goals

24%

Juventude 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

71%

Juventude (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.41 + Juventude defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

Juventude attack 0.86 + Santos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santos scores more

53%

level

25%

Juventude scores more

22%

Santos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Gabriel Brazao

Santos · G

8.7

Match Events

6'

22'

29'

34'

37'

40'

45'

W. Angel↳ Marcelo Hermes

46'

Mayke← B. Rollheiser

52'

Neymar

52'

Caique Gonçalves

64'

G. Caballero← Igor Vinicius

65'

Gabriel Taliari← Gilberto

65'

E. Batalla← Gabriel Veron

73'

Ze Rafael← Joao Schmidt

73'

Luca Meirelles← Tiquinho Soares

75'

Abner← W. Angel

80'

NeymarPenalty

83'

D. Giraldo← Caique Goncalves

83'

Marlon← Enio

85'

G. Escobar← A. Barreal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosJuventude

Overview

50%Possession50%

19Total Shots20

2.63Expected Goals (xG)1.72

3Corners8

18Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots20

8On Target10

7Off Target7

4Blocked3

13Inside Box11

6Outside Box9

Passing

50%Possession50%

378Total Passes383

318Accurate Passes334

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

9Saves5

-0.05Goals Prevented-0.05

Discipline

18Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Santos vs Juventude

Santos beat Juventude 3-1 in Serie A on August 4, 2025.

Goals: Neymar (37', 80' pen), A. Barreal (40'), W. Angel (45').

Santos controlled possession (50%) and registered 19 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Do MorumBIS in Sao Paulo.

Santos vs Juventude — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Santos vs Juventude