Juventude 3–0 Santos: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santos

Guilherme Castilho 84'

Dawhan 64'

Ricardo Bueno 45+1'

9/26/2021

Serie A · Round 22Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Juventude39%

×Draw27%

Santos34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchSantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.19

Juventude

1.31

Santos

1.19

Juventude creates 10% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 35 away

1.14

creates per match

1.09

1.29

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Juventude

1.14

Santos

1.09

allows per match

Juventude

1.29

Santos

1.48

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude+0.12scores more

Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Santos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

66%

Juventude or Santos

73%

Draw or Santos

61%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

18%

Santos wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

73%

Juventude 2+ goals

38%

Juventude 3+ goals

14%

Santos 1+ goals

70%

Santos 2+ goals

33%

Santos 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

54%

Santos (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Santos away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.48 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.14 + Santos defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Santos attack 1.09 + Juventude defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Juventude scores more

39%

level

27%

Santos scores more

34%

Juventude at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Guilherme Castilho

Juventude · F

8.9

Match Events

45+1'

Ricardo Bueno↳ Guilherme Castilho

50'

William Matheus

53'

Vitor Mendes

55'

Sorriso

61'

Gabriel Pirani← Jean Mota

61'

Diego Tardelli← Danilo Boza

64'

Dawhan↳ Guilherme Castilho

66'

Capixaba← Wescley

77'

Moraes← Felipe Jonatan

78'

Lucas Braga← C. Sánchez

79'

Chico← Marcos Vinicios

84'

Guilherme Castilho↳ Capixaba

88'

Ricardinho← Guilherme Castilho

88'

Roberson← Ricardo Bueno

88'

Didi← Vitor Mendes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeSantos

Overview

38%Possession62%

6Total Shots19

2Corners5

15Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots19

4On Target3

0Off Target9

2Blocked7

4Inside Box13

2Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

321Total Passes534

248Accurate Passes464

77%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls16

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1