Santos 0–3 FC Inter Wanica: Result & Stats

Santos

FT

0 – 3

FC Inter Wanica

7/2/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 15Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santos32%

×Draw19%

FC Inter Wanica48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchFC Inter Wanica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

2.48

Santos

2.03

FC Inter Wanica

2.48

FC Inter Wanica creates 22% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 60 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

3.79

allows per match

2.68

creates per match

Santos

1.38

FC Inter Wanica

1.17

allows per match

Santos

3.79

FC Inter Wanica

2.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos+0.00on par

FC Inter Wanica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

FC Inter Wanica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Santos or draw

52%

Santos or FC Inter Wanica

81%

Draw or FC Inter Wanica

68%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

17%

FC Inter Wanica wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

87%

Santos 2+ goals

60%

Santos 3+ goals

33%

FC Inter Wanica 1+ goals

92%

FC Inter Wanica 2+ goals

70%

FC Inter Wanica 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

40%

FC Inter Wanica (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 3.79 · 29 matches

FC Inter Wanica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.68 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.38 + FC Inter Wanica defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.03

FC Inter Wanica attack 1.17 + Santos defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santos scores more

32%

level

19%

FC Inter Wanica scores more

48%

FC Inter Wanica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Inter Wanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff