FC Inter Wanica 4–2 Santos: Result & Stats

FC Inter Wanica

FT

4 – 2

Santos

3/19/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 4Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Inter Wanica52%

×Draw19%

Santos28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Inter WanicaExpected goals in this matchSantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.80

FC Inter Wanica

2.46

Santos

1.80

FC Inter Wanica creates 37% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 27 away

1.19

creates per match

0.93

2.67

allows per match

3.74

creates per match

FC Inter Wanica

1.19

Santos

0.93

allows per match

FC Inter Wanica

2.67

Santos

3.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Inter Wanica+0.00on par

Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Inter Wanica ↓

Santos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

FC Inter Wanica or draw

72%

FC Inter Wanica or Santos

81%

Draw or Santos

48%

Winning margin

FC Inter Wanica wins by 2+

32%

Santos wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Inter Wanica 1+ goals

91%

FC Inter Wanica 2+ goals

70%

FC Inter Wanica 3+ goals

44%

Santos 1+ goals

83%

Santos 2+ goals

54%

Santos 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

FC Inter Wanica (draw refunded)

65%

Santos (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Inter Wanica at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.67 · 57 matches

Santos away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Inter Wanica attack 1.19 + Santos defence 3.74 → ÷2 → 2.46

Santos attack 0.93 + FC Inter Wanica defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Inter Wanica scores more

52%

level

19%

Santos scores more

28%

FC Inter Wanica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Inter Wanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff