Santos 1–1 Deportivo Recoleta: Result & Stats

Santos

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Recoleta

Neymar 4'

R. Ortiz 45' (pen)

4/15/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Santos38%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Recoleta33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Recoleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.08

Santos

1.17

Deportivo Recoleta

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

0.83

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Santos

1.33

Deportivo Recoleta

1.33

allows per match

Santos

0.83

Deportivo Recoleta

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos+0.00on par

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Deportivo Recoleta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santos or draw

67%

Santos or Deportivo Recoleta

71%

Draw or Deportivo Recoleta

62%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

16%

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

69%

Santos 2+ goals

33%

Santos 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

53%

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Deportivo Recoleta away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.33 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.33 + Santos defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santos scores more

38%

level

29%

Deportivo Recoleta scores more

33%

Santos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Neymar

Santos · M

8.7

Match Events

4'

22'

33'

42'

45'

R. OrtizPenalty

60'

J. Noguera← T. Vidal

60'

B. Medina← C. Figueredo

64'

B. Rollheiser← Moises

64'

Miguelito← Gabriel Bontempo

64'

Thaciano← Gabriel Barbosa

72'

J. Nunez← M. Schupp

75'

Rafael Gonzaga← G. Escobar

79'

Fernando Galeano

84'

Oscar Toledo

84'

L. Diaz← Igor Vinicius

84'

C. Garay← H. Lopez

84'

M. Masi← F. Galeano

89'

Richard Ortiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosDeportivo

Overview

78%Possession22%

17Total Shots1

2.85Expected Goals (xG)0.79

6Corners2

10Fouls19

Shots

17Total Shots1

5On Target1

6Off Target0

6Blocked0

11Inside Box1

6Outside Box0

Passing

78%Possession22%

603Total Passes176

522Accurate Passes112

87%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.87Goals Prevented0.87

Discipline

10Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3