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Deportivo Recoleta vs Santos — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santos
Santos
F. Galeano 86'
Neymar 41'
5/6/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Monumental Rio Parapiti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Deportivo Recoleta32%
×Draw36%
Santos32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Recoleta
0.77
Santos
0.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Deportivo Recoleta
0.67
Santos
0.86

allows per match

Deportivo Recoleta
0.67
Santos
0.86

finishing

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Recoleta ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–117%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Deportivo Recoleta or draw
68%
Deportivo Recoleta or Santos
64%
Draw or Santos
68%

Winning margin

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+
10%
Santos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals
54%
Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals
4%
Santos 1+ goals
54%
Santos 2+ goals
18%
Santos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)
50%
Santos (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Recoleta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Santos away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Recoleta attack 0.67 + Santos defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Santos attack 0.86 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Deportivo Recoleta scores more
32%
level
36%
Santos scores more
32%

Deportivo Recoleta at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
NeymarSantosSantos · M
8.0

Match Events

41'
Neymar↳ B. Rollheiser
46'
A. Franco← J. Espinola
46'
K. Parzajuk← P. Rios
48'
Ronal Dominguez
59'
Wilfrido Baez
70'
B. Ferreira← W. Baez
75'
Luan Peres← G. Escobar
75'
Thaciano← Gabriel Barbosa
80'
Brahian Ferreira
80'
B. Medina← F. A. Echeguren Zarza
81'
Luis Cardozo
86'
F. Galeano← R. Dominguez
86'
F. Galeano
89'
Rony← C. Oliva
89'
A. Barreal← Gabriel Bontempo
90+1'
Rony
90+2'
Mateus Xavier←

Possession

33%Deportivo

Shots

5Deportivo

Pass accuracy

45%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoSantos
Overview
33%Possession67%
5Total Shots17
0.44Expected Goals (xG)2.74
6Corners5
18Fouls5
Shots
5Total Shots17
2On Target3
3Off Target8
0Blocked6
2Inside Box11
3Outside Box6
Passing
33%Possession67%
272Total Passes571
198Accurate Passes506
73%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
0.20Goals Prevented0.20
Discipline
18Fouls5
4Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Deportivo Recoleta 1–1 Santos

Deportivo Recoleta and Santos drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 6, 2026.

Goals: Neymar (41'), F. Galeano (86').

Santos controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Rio Parapiti in Pedro Juan Caballero.