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Santos vs Bintang Lair — Eerste Divisie 2019

Santos
Santos
CANC
21:00
Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
3/31/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 11Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Santos40%
×Draw19%
Bintang Lair41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
2.50
Bintang Lair
2.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

creates per match

Santos
1.38
Bintang Lair
1.31

allows per match

Santos
3.79
Bintang Lair
3.63

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
Bintang Lair+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Bintang Lair →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Santos or draw
59%
Santos or Bintang Lair
81%
Draw or Bintang Lair
60%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
23%
Bintang Lair wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
92%
Santos 2+ goals
71%
Santos 3+ goals
45%
Bintang Lair 1+ goals
92%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
72%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
49%
Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 3.79 · 29 matches

Bintang Lair away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.38 + Bintang Lair defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.50

Bintang Lair attack 1.31 + Santos defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santos scores more
40%
level
19%
Bintang Lair scores more
41%

Bintang Lair at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bintang Lair will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santos face Bintang Lair (Eerste Divisie)

Eerste Divisie returns with Santos hosting Bintang Lair. Match starts March 31, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Santos host Bintang Lair at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.