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Bintang Lair vs Santos — Eerste Divisie 2019

Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
FT
2 – 1
Santos
Santos
3/12/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 3Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bintang Lair46%
×Draw19%
Santos35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bintang Lair
2.65
Santos
2.31

Bintang Lair creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bintang Lair
1.56
Santos
0.93

allows per match

Bintang Lair
3.69
Santos
3.74

finishing

Bintang Lair+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bintang Lair ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Bintang Lair or draw
65%
Bintang Lair or Santos
81%
Draw or Santos
54%

Winning margin

Bintang Lair wins by 2+
28%
Santos wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bintang Lair 1+ goals
93%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
74%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
48%
Santos 1+ goals
90%
Santos 2+ goals
67%
Santos 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
57%
Santos (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bintang Lair at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

Santos away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bintang Lair attack 1.56 + Santos defence 3.74 → ÷2 → 2.65

Santos attack 0.93 + Bintang Lair defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bintang Lair scores more
46%
level
19%
Santos scores more
35%

Bintang Lair at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bintang Lair will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bintang Lair vs Santos

Bintang Lair beat Santos 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.