Santos U20 4–0 Jabaquara U20: Result & Stats

Santos U20

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jabaquara U20

Eduardo Gualberto 90+4'

L. Meirelles 79'

Joao Victor 63'

Rodrigo 17'

5/18/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Centro de Treinamento Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santos U2078%

×Draw14%

Jabaquara U208%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos U20Expected goals in this matchJabaquara U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

0.69

Santos U20

2.62

Jabaquara U20

0.69

Santos U20 creates 280% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 17 away

3.00

creates per match

0.71

0.67

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Santos U20

3.00

Jabaquara U20

0.71

allows per match

Santos U20

0.67

Jabaquara U20

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos U20+0.00on par

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U20 ↓

Jabaquara U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Santos U20 or draw

92%

Santos U20 or Jabaquara U20

86%

Draw or Jabaquara U20

22%

Winning margin

Santos U20 wins by 2+

57%

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Santos U20 1+ goals

93%

Santos U20 2+ goals

73%

Santos U20 3+ goals

48%

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

50%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

15%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Santos U20 (draw refunded)

91%

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Jabaquara U20 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U20 attack 3.00 + Jabaquara U20 defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.62

Jabaquara U20 attack 0.71 + Santos U20 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Santos U20 scores more

78%

level

14%

Jabaquara U20 scores more

8%

Santos U20 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Rodrigo

63'

Joao Victor

79'

L. Meirelles

90+4'

Eduardo Gualberto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff