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Jabaquara U20 vs Santos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Jabaquara U20
Jabaquara U20
FT
0 – 2
Santos U20
Santos U20
4/13/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jabaquara U2026%
×Draw27%
Santos U2047%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jabaquara U20
0.94
Santos U20
1.38

Santos U20 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

creates per match

Jabaquara U20
1.07
Santos U20
1.64

allows per match

Jabaquara U20
1.13
Santos U20
0.80

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw
53%
Jabaquara U20 or Santos U20
73%
Draw or Santos U20
74%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+
9%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals
61%
Jabaquara U20 2+ goals
24%
Jabaquara U20 3+ goals
7%
Santos U20 1+ goals
75%
Santos U20 2+ goals
40%
Santos U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)
35%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + Santos U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Santos U20 attack 1.64 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more
26%
level
27%
Santos U20 scores more
47%

Santos U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Jabaquara U20 0–2 Santos U20

Santos U20 beat Jabaquara U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Espanha in Santos, São Paulo.