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Santos U20 vs Botafogo U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2026

Santos U20
Santos U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Botafogo U20
Botafogo U20
3/12/2025Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 1Centro de Treinamento Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Santos U2048%
×Draw21%
Botafogo U2031%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos U20
2.06
Botafogo U20
1.64

Santos U20 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Santos U20
1.80
Botafogo U20
1.67

allows per match

Santos U20
1.60
Botafogo U20
2.33

finishing

Santos U20+0.00on par
Botafogo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U20 ↓

Botafogo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Santos U20 or draw
69%
Santos U20 or Botafogo U20
79%
Draw or Botafogo U20
52%

Winning margin

Santos U20 wins by 2+
27%
Botafogo U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Santos U20 1+ goals
87%
Santos U20 2+ goals
61%
Santos U20 3+ goals
34%
Botafogo U20 1+ goals
81%
Botafogo U20 2+ goals
49%
Botafogo U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Santos U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Botafogo U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U20 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Botafogo U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U20 attack 1.80 + Botafogo U20 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Botafogo U20 attack 1.67 + Santos U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santos U20 scores more
48%
level
21%
Botafogo U20 scores more
31%

Santos U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos U20 vs Botafogo U20

Santos U20 beat Botafogo U20 4-1 in Brasileiro U20 A on March 12, 2025.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Rei Pelé in Santos, São Paulo.