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Botafogo U20 vs Santos U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2026

Botafogo U20
Botafogo U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Santos U20
Santos U20
8/7/2024Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 17Estádio Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Botafogo U2049%
×Draw23%
Santos U2028%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo U20
1.81
Santos U20
1.31

Botafogo U20 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Botafogo U20
2.00
Santos U20
1.62

allows per match

Botafogo U20
1.00
Santos U20
1.62

finishing

Botafogo U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Botafogo U20 or draw
72%
Botafogo U20 or Santos U20
77%
Draw or Santos U20
51%

Winning margin

Botafogo U20 wins by 2+
27%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Botafogo U20 1+ goals
84%
Botafogo U20 2+ goals
54%
Botafogo U20 3+ goals
27%
Santos U20 1+ goals
73%
Santos U20 2+ goals
38%
Santos U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Botafogo U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo U20 attack 2.00 + Santos U20 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Santos U20 attack 1.62 + Botafogo U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botafogo U20 scores more
49%
level
23%
Santos U20 scores more
28%

Botafogo U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botafogo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U20 A: Botafogo U20 3–2 Santos U20

Botafogo U20 beat Santos U20 3-2 in Brasileiro U20 A on August 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro.