Santos U20 5–0 Aguai U20: Result & Stats

Santos U20

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Aguai U20

F. Pradella 90+1', 70'

P. Padula Tobias de Aguiar 46'

Rodrigo 39'

D. Gualberto 34'

6/28/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 2Centro de Treinamento Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Santos U2073%

×Draw16%

Aguai U2011%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos U20Expected goals in this matchAguai U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.86

Santos U20

2.50

Aguai U20

0.86

Santos U20 creates 191% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 20 away

3.00

creates per match

1.05

0.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Santos U20

3.00

Aguai U20

1.05

allows per match

Santos U20

0.67

Aguai U20

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos U20+0.00on par

Aguai U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U20 ↓

Aguai U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Santos U20 or draw

89%

Santos U20 or Aguai U20

84%

Draw or Aguai U20

27%

Winning margin

Santos U20 wins by 2+

50%

Aguai U20 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Santos U20 1+ goals

92%

Santos U20 2+ goals

71%

Santos U20 3+ goals

45%

Aguai U20 1+ goals

58%

Aguai U20 2+ goals

21%

Aguai U20 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Santos U20 (draw refunded)

87%

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Aguai U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U20 attack 3.00 + Aguai U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Aguai U20 attack 1.05 + Santos U20 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Santos U20 scores more

73%

level

16%

Aguai U20 scores more

11%

Santos U20 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

D. Gualberto

39'

Rodrigo

46'

P. Padula Tobias de Aguiar

70'

F. Pradella

90+1'

F. Pradella

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff