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Aguai U20 vs Santos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Aguai U20
Aguai U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santos U20
Santos U20
Vinicius 90'
E. Monteiro 55'
8/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Dr. Leonardo Guaranha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aguai U2023%
×Draw28%
Santos U2050%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aguai U20
0.84
Santos U20
1.38

Santos U20 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Aguai U20
0.89
Santos U20
1.64

allows per match

Aguai U20
1.11
Santos U20
0.80

finishing

Aguai U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 62Over: 3862%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aguai U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aguai U20 or draw
50%
Aguai U20 or Santos U20
72%
Draw or Santos U20
77%

Winning margin

Aguai U20 wins by 2+
7%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Aguai U20 1+ goals
57%
Aguai U20 2+ goals
21%
Aguai U20 3+ goals
5%
Santos U20 1+ goals
75%
Santos U20 2+ goals
40%
Santos U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)
32%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aguai U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aguai U20 attack 0.89 + Santos U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Santos U20 attack 1.64 + Aguai U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aguai U20 scores more
23%
level
28%
Santos U20 scores more
50%

Santos U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
E. Monteiro
90'
Vinicius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Aguai U20 1–1 Santos U20

Aguai U20 and Santos U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on August 3, 2024.

Goals: E. Monteiro (55'), Vinicius (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Leonardo Guaranha in Aguaí, São Paulo.