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Santos U17 vs Cruzeiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Santos U17
Santos U17advanced
FT
6 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
V. Lamouniera 90+2'
L. Meirelles 77', 67', 56'
Padula 45+2'
Murillo 16'
C. Baptistella 61'
F. Morais 34'
R. Lelis 8'
9/25/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Quarter-finalsCentro de Treinamento Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santos U1751%
×Draw20%
Cruzeiro U1729%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos U17
2.25
Cruzeiro U17
1.66

Santos U17 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Santos U17
2.50
Cruzeiro U17
2.10

allows per match

Santos U17
1.22
Cruzeiro U17
2.00

finishing

Santos U17+0.00on par
Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 75Under: 2575%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 72No: 2872%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U17 ↓

Cruzeiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Santos U17 or draw
71%
Santos U17 or Cruzeiro U17
80%
Draw or Cruzeiro U17
49%

Winning margin

Santos U17 wins by 2+
31%
Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Santos U17 1+ goals
89%
Santos U17 2+ goals
65%
Santos U17 3+ goals
39%
Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
81%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
49%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Santos U17 (draw refunded)
64%
Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U17 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Cruzeiro U17 away — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U17 attack 2.50 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Cruzeiro U17 attack 2.10 + Santos U17 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Santos U17 scores more
51%
level
20%
Cruzeiro U17 scores more
29%

Santos U17 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Santos U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
R. Lelis
16'
Murillo
34'
F. Morais
45+2'
Padula
56'
L. Meirelles
61'
C. Baptistella
67'
L. Meirelles
77'
L. Meirelles
90+2'
V. Lamouniera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Santos U17 6–3 Cruzeiro U17

Santos U17 beat Cruzeiro U17 6-3 in Brasileiro U17 on September 25, 2024.

Goals: R. Lelis (8'), Murillo (16'), F. Morais (34'), Padula (45+2'), L. Meirelles (56', 67', 77'), C. Baptistella (61'), V. Lamouniera (90+2').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Rei Pelé in Santos, São Paulo.