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Cruzeiro U17 vs Santos U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Santos U17
Santos U17advanced
P. Assis Goncalves 31' (pen)
Gabriel Sa 54'
M. Xavier 11'
9/18/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cruzeiro U1750%
×Draw23%
Santos U1727%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro U17
1.77
Santos U17
1.25

Cruzeiro U17 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro U17
1.79
Santos U17
1.38

allows per match

Cruzeiro U17
1.11
Santos U17
1.76

finishing

Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par
Santos U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro U17 ↓

Santos U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cruzeiro U17 or draw
73%
Cruzeiro U17 or Santos U17
77%
Draw or Santos U17
50%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
27%
Santos U17 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
83%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
53%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
26%
Santos U17 1+ goals
71%
Santos U17 2+ goals
36%
Santos U17 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
65%
Santos U17 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Santos U17 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro U17 attack 1.79 + Santos U17 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Santos U17 attack 1.38 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cruzeiro U17 scores more
50%
level
23%
Santos U17 scores more
27%

Cruzeiro U17 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cruzeiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Xavier
31'
P. Assis GoncalvesPenalty
54'
Gabriel Sa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cruzeiro U17 vs Santos U17

Santos U17 beat Cruzeiro U17 2-1 in Brasileiro U17 on September 18, 2024.

Goals: M. Xavier (11'), P. Assis Goncalves (31' pen), Gabriel Sa (54').

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.