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Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
H. Preciado 87' (pen)
D. Medina 62', 16'
1/15/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Nuevo Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Santos Laguna48%
×Draw25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.60
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.15

Santos Laguna creates 39% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 151 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.66
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
73%
Santos Laguna or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
75%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
52%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
80%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
47%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
22%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
68%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
32%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
64%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
48%
level
25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
27%

Santos Laguna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
S. SosaU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · G
9.7

Match Events

6'
José Galindo
16'
D. Medina
43'
Félix Torres
46'
C. Huerta← José González
62'
D. Medina
64'
Dória← R. López
69'
M. García← E. Alaffita
69'
C. Gutiérrez← P. Bennevendo
70'
A. Álvarez← A. Aldrete
77'
J. González← D. Medina
78'
S. Mariscal← J. Correa
78'
Diogo de Oliveira← G. del Prete
87'
H. PreciadoPenalty
89'
E. Pérez← H. Preciado
89'
J. Lozano← O. Campos

Possession

39%Santos

Shots

27Santos

Pass accuracy

46%Santos

Statistics

SantosU.N.A.M.
Overview
39%Possession61%
27Total Shots23
7Corners10
6Fouls9
Shots
27Total Shots23
19On Target9
2Off Target12
6Blocked2
21Inside Box10
6Outside Box13
Passing
39%Possession61%
263Total Passes415
190Accurate Passes343
72%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
8Saves16
Discipline
6Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Santos Laguna beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-0 in Liga MX on January 15, 2023.

Goals: D. Medina (16', 62'), H. Preciado (87' pen).

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (61%) and registered 23 shots to 27.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Corona in Torreón.