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Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
J. Furch 58' (pen)
J. Vásquez 70'
2/2/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Nuevo Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Santos Laguna47%
×Draw25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.59
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.16

Santos Laguna creates 37% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 151 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.65
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.19
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
72%
Santos Laguna or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
75%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
53%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
24%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
80%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
47%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
21%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
69%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
32%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
63%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 147 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.65 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.59

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Santos Laguna defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
47%
level
25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
28%

Santos Laguna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
B. LozanoSantos LagunaSantos Laguna · M
7.6

Match Events

35'
Ulises Rivas
42'
Favio Álvarez
58'
J. FurchPenalty
61'
M. García← J. Vigón
67'
J. Dinenno← F. Álvarez
70'
J. Vásquez↳ P. Barrera
72'
I. Malcorra← S. Saucedo
74'
O. Rivero← J. Furch
77'
D. Valdés← E. Aguirre
79'
Gerardo Arteaga
84'
A. Cervantes← E. Castillo
88'
Brian Lozano

Possession

50%Santos

Shots

13Santos

Pass accuracy

52%Santos

Statistics

SantosU.N.A.M.
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots6
5Corners4
24Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots6
4On Target4
7Off Target2
2Blocked0
9Inside Box5
4Outside Box1
Passing
50%Possession50%
290Total Passes294
204Accurate Passes188
70%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
24Fouls17
3Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Santos Laguna and U.N.A.M. - Pumas drew 1-1 in Liga MX on February 2, 2020.

Goals: J. Furch (58' pen), J. Vásquez (70').

Santos Laguna controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Corona in Torreón.