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Santos Laguna vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Puebla
Puebla
2/2/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 5Estadio Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Santos Laguna50%
×Draw24%
Puebla26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.65
Puebla
1.11

Santos Laguna creates 49% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 142 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.66
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
Puebla
1.65

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
74%
Santos Laguna or Puebla
76%
Draw or Puebla
50%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
26%
Puebla wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
81%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
49%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
23%
Puebla 1+ goals
67%
Puebla 2+ goals
30%
Puebla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
66%
Puebla (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Puebla attack 1.05 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
50%
level
24%
Puebla scores more
26%

Santos Laguna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Santos Laguna 0–2 Puebla

Puebla beat Santos Laguna 2-0 in Liga MX on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Corona in Torreón.