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Puebla vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Puebla
Puebla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
7/5/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Puebla44%
×Draw25%
Santos Laguna31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.56
Santos Laguna
1.28

Puebla creates 22% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 142 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.26
Santos Laguna
1.09

allows per match

Puebla
1.47
Santos Laguna
1.87

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
69%
Puebla or Santos Laguna
75%
Draw or Santos Laguna
56%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
22%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
79%
Puebla 2+ goals
46%
Puebla 3+ goals
21%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
72%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
37%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
58%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 140 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.26 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.56

Santos Laguna attack 1.09 + Puebla defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Puebla scores more
44%
level
25%
Santos Laguna scores more
31%

Puebla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puebla vs Santos Laguna

Puebla beat Santos Laguna 1-0 in Liga MX on July 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtémoc in Puebla.