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Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Juarez
FC Juarez
10/7/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Santos Laguna53%
×Draw24%
FC Juarez24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.71
FC Juarez
1.06

Santos Laguna creates 61% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 119 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.66
FC Juarez
0.94

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
FC Juarez
1.77

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

FC Juarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
76%
Santos Laguna or FC Juarez
76%
Draw or FC Juarez
47%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
29%
FC Juarez wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
82%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
51%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
24%
FC Juarez 1+ goals
65%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
29%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
69%
FC Juarez (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.77 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + FC Juarez defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Juarez attack 0.94 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
53%
level
24%
FC Juarez scores more
24%

Santos Laguna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Santos Laguna 0–2 FC Juarez

FC Juarez beat Santos Laguna 2-0 in Liga MX on October 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Corona in Torreón.