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FC Juarez vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
4/1/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FC Juarez45%
×Draw25%
Santos Laguna30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.57
Santos Laguna
1.25

FC Juarez creates 26% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 142 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.26
Santos Laguna
1.10

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.39
Santos Laguna
1.88

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
70%
FC Juarez or Santos Laguna
75%
Draw or Santos Laguna
55%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
23%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
79%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
46%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
21%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
71%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
36%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
60%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.26 + Santos Laguna defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + FC Juarez defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Juarez scores more
45%
level
25%
Santos Laguna scores more
30%

FC Juarez at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Juarez vs Santos Laguna

FC Juarez beat Santos Laguna 2-1 in Liga MX on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez in Ciudad Juárez.