Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santos Laguna vs CF Montreal — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Santos Laguna
Santos Lagunaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
2/16/2022CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Estadio Nuevo Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Santos Laguna70%
×Draw18%
CF Montreal12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
2.29
CF Montreal
0.83

Santos Laguna creates 176% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
3.25
CF Montreal
0.67

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.00
CF Montreal
1.33

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
CF Montreal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
88%
Santos Laguna or CF Montreal
82%
Draw or CF Montreal
30%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
46%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
90%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
66%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
40%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
56%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
20%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
85%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 3.25 + CF Montreal defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

CF Montreal attack 0.67 + Santos Laguna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
70%
level
18%
CF Montreal scores more
12%

Santos Laguna at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONCACAF Champions League: Santos Laguna 1–0 CF Montreal

Santos Laguna beat CF Montreal 1-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on February 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Corona in Torreón.