CF Montreal 3–0 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

CF Montreal

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Santos Laguna

2/24/2022

CONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Stade Olympique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

CF Montreal40%

×Draw25%

Santos Laguna35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF MontrealExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.40

CF Montreal

1.50

Santos Laguna

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

0.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

CF Montreal

1.00

Santos Laguna

2.00

allows per match

CF Montreal

0.80

Santos Laguna

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Montreal+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw

65%

CF Montreal or Santos Laguna

75%

Draw or Santos Laguna

60%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+

19%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals

78%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

44%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

19%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

75%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

41%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

53%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.00 + Santos Laguna defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Santos Laguna attack 2.00 + CF Montreal defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CF Montreal scores more

40%

level

25%

Santos Laguna scores more

35%

CF Montreal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff