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Santos Laguna vs Atlas — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlas
Atlas
4/19/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Santos Laguna48%
×Draw25%
Atlas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.61
Atlas
1.13

Santos Laguna creates 42% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 146 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.66
Atlas
1.07

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
Atlas
1.56

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
73%
Santos Laguna or Atlas
75%
Draw or Atlas
52%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
25%
Atlas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
80%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
48%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
22%
Atlas 1+ goals
68%
Atlas 2+ goals
31%
Atlas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
64%
Atlas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Atlas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Atlas attack 1.07 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
48%
level
25%
Atlas scores more
27%

Santos Laguna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos Laguna vs Atlas

Atlas beat Santos Laguna 1-0 in Liga MX on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Corona in Torreon.