Atlas 3–0 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Atlas

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Santos Laguna

2/5/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 5Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 141+ matches

Atlas45%

×Draw26%

Santos Laguna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlasExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.14

Atlas

1.50

Santos Laguna

1.14

Atlas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 141 away

1.12

creates per match

1.09

1.19

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Atlas

1.12

Santos Laguna

1.09

allows per match

Atlas

1.19

Santos Laguna

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atlas or draw

71%

Atlas or Santos Laguna

74%

Draw or Santos Laguna

55%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+

23%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals

78%

Atlas 2+ goals

44%

Atlas 3+ goals

19%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

68%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

32%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)

61%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 142 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Santos Laguna attack 1.09 + Atlas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlas scores more

45%

level

26%

Santos Laguna scores more

29%

Atlas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff