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Santos AP vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes — Serie D 2018

Santos AP
Santos AP
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
6/1/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estádio Milton Corrêa (Macapá, Amapá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Santos AP62%
×Draw20%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos AP
2.13
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
1.06

Santos AP creates 101% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Santos AP
1.40
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.73

allows per match

Santos AP
1.40
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.87

finishing

Santos AP+0.00on par
Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos AP ↓

Real Desportivo Ariquemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Santos AP or draw
82%
Santos AP or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
80%
Draw or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
38%

Winning margin

Santos AP wins by 2+
38%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Santos AP 1+ goals
88%
Santos AP 2+ goals
63%
Santos AP 3+ goals
35%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
65%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
29%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Santos AP (draw refunded)
77%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos AP at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos AP attack 1.40 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.13

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.73 + Santos AP defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Santos AP scores more
62%
level
20%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
18%

Santos AP at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Santos AP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos AP vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes

Real Desportivo Ariquemes beat Santos AP 1-0 in Serie D on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Milton Corrêa (Macapá, Amapá).