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Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs Santos AP — Serie D 2018

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Santos AP
Santos AP
5/11/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 2Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério (Ariquemes, Rondônia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes37%
×Draw26%
Santos AP37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
1.30
Santos AP
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.80
Santos AP
0.53

allows per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.07
Santos AP
1.80

finishing

Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par
Santos AP+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Desportivo Ariquemes ↓

Santos AP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Desportivo Ariquemes or draw
63%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes or Santos AP
74%
Draw or Santos AP
63%

Winning margin

Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
16%
Santos AP wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
73%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
37%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
14%
Santos AP 1+ goals
73%
Santos AP 2+ goals
37%
Santos AP 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
50%
Santos AP (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Desportivo Ariquemes at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Santos AP away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.80 + Santos AP defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.30

Santos AP attack 0.53 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
37%
level
26%
Santos AP scores more
37%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Desportivo Ariquemes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs Santos AP

Real Desportivo Ariquemes beat Santos AP 2-1 in Serie D on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério (Ariquemes, Rondônia).