Santos AP 8–1 Plácido de Castro: Result & Stats

Santos AP

FT

8 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Plácido de Castro

5/27/2018

Serie D · Round 6Estádio Milton Corrêa (Macapá, Amapá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Santos AP72%

×Draw16%

Plácido de Castro12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos APExpected goals in this matchPlácido de Castro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.03

Santos AP

2.70

Plácido de Castro

1.03

Santos AP creates 162% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

0.67

1.40

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Santos AP

1.40

Plácido de Castro

0.67

allows per match

Santos AP

1.40

Plácido de Castro

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos AP+0.00on par

Plácido de Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos AP ↓

Plácido de Castro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Santos AP or draw

88%

Santos AP or Plácido de Castro

84%

Draw or Plácido de Castro

28%

Winning margin

Santos AP wins by 2+

51%

Plácido de Castro wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Santos AP 1+ goals

93%

Santos AP 2+ goals

75%

Santos AP 3+ goals

50%

Plácido de Castro 1+ goals

64%

Plácido de Castro 2+ goals

28%

Plácido de Castro 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Santos AP (draw refunded)

86%

Plácido de Castro (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos AP at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Plácido de Castro away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos AP attack 1.40 + Plácido de Castro defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Plácido de Castro attack 0.67 + Santos AP defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Santos AP scores more

72%

level

16%

Plácido de Castro scores more

12%

Santos AP at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Santos AP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff