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Plácido de Castro vs Santos AP — Serie D 2026

Plácido de Castro
Plácido de Castro
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Santos AP
Santos AP
4/22/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio José Ferreira Lima (Plácido de Castro, Acre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Plácido de Castro48%
×Draw22%
Santos AP29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plácido de Castro
1.90
Santos AP
1.43

Plácido de Castro creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Plácido de Castro
2.00
Santos AP
0.53

allows per match

Plácido de Castro
2.33
Santos AP
1.80

finishing

Plácido de Castro+0.00on par
Santos AP+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plácido de Castro ↓

Santos AP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Plácido de Castro or draw
71%
Plácido de Castro or Santos AP
78%
Draw or Santos AP
52%

Winning margin

Plácido de Castro wins by 2+
27%
Santos AP wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Plácido de Castro 1+ goals
85%
Plácido de Castro 2+ goals
56%
Plácido de Castro 3+ goals
29%
Santos AP 1+ goals
76%
Santos AP 2+ goals
42%
Santos AP 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Plácido de Castro (draw refunded)
62%
Santos AP (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plácido de Castro at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Santos AP away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plácido de Castro attack 2.00 + Santos AP defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Santos AP attack 0.53 + Plácido de Castro defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Plácido de Castro scores more
48%
level
22%
Santos AP scores more
29%

Plácido de Castro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Plácido de Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Plácido de Castro 2–2 Santos AP

Plácido de Castro and Santos AP drew 2-2 in Serie D on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio José Ferreira Lima (Plácido de Castro, Acre).