Santos AP 1–2 Juventude MA: Result & Stats

Santos AP

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Juventude MA

11/28/2020

Serie D · Round 14Estádio Milton Corrêa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Santos AP38%

×Draw27%

Juventude MA35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos APExpected goals in this matchJuventude MA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.20

Santos AP

1.26

Juventude MA

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

1.40

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Santos AP

1.40

Juventude MA

1.00

allows per match

Santos AP

1.40

Juventude MA

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos AP+0.00on par

Juventude MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos AP ↓

Juventude MA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Santos AP or draw

65%

Santos AP or Juventude MA

73%

Draw or Juventude MA

62%

Winning margin

Santos AP wins by 2+

17%

Juventude MA wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Santos AP 1+ goals

72%

Santos AP 2+ goals

36%

Santos AP 3+ goals

13%

Juventude MA 1+ goals

70%

Juventude MA 2+ goals

34%

Juventude MA 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Santos AP (draw refunded)

52%

Juventude MA (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos AP at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Juventude MA away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos AP attack 1.40 + Juventude MA defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Juventude MA attack 1.00 + Santos AP defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santos AP scores more

38%

level

27%

Juventude MA scores more

35%

Santos AP at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santos AP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff