Juventude MA 4–0 Santos AP: Result & Stats

Juventude MA

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santos AP

9/19/2020

Serie D · Round 1Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Juventude MA52%

×Draw26%

Santos AP22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventude MAExpected goals in this matchSantos AP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.87

Juventude MA

1.50

Santos AP

0.87

Juventude MA creates 72% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

1.21

creates per match

0.53

1.21

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Juventude MA

1.21

Santos AP

0.53

allows per match

Juventude MA

1.21

Santos AP

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude MA+0.00on par

Santos AP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude MA ↓

Santos AP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Juventude MA or draw

78%

Juventude MA or Santos AP

74%

Draw or Santos AP

48%

Winning margin

Juventude MA wins by 2+

27%

Santos AP wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Juventude MA 1+ goals

78%

Juventude MA 2+ goals

44%

Juventude MA 3+ goals

19%

Santos AP 1+ goals

58%

Santos AP 2+ goals

22%

Santos AP 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Juventude MA (draw refunded)

70%

Santos AP (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude MA at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Santos AP away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude MA attack 1.21 + Santos AP defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Santos AP attack 0.53 + Juventude MA defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Juventude MA scores more

52%

level

26%

Santos AP scores more

22%

Juventude MA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Juventude MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff