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Santomera vs Cartagena LU II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santomera
Santomera
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
5/2/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio El Limonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santomera41%
×Draw27%
Cartagena LU II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santomera
1.31
Cartagena LU II
1.13

Santomera creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Santomera
1.38
Cartagena LU II
1.04

allows per match

Santomera
1.21
Cartagena LU II
1.25

finishing

Santomera+0.00on par
Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santomera ↓

Cartagena LU II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santomera or draw
68%
Santomera or Cartagena LU II
73%
Draw or Cartagena LU II
59%

Winning margin

Santomera wins by 2+
18%
Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Santomera 1+ goals
73%
Santomera 2+ goals
38%
Santomera 3+ goals
14%
Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
68%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
31%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santomera (draw refunded)
56%
Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santomera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Cartagena LU II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santomera attack 1.38 + Cartagena LU II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cartagena LU II attack 1.04 + Santomera defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santomera scores more
41%
level
27%
Cartagena LU II scores more
32%

Santomera at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santomera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santomera 2 – 1 Cartagena LU II

Santomera beat Cartagena LU II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Limonar in Santomera.