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Cartagena LU II vs Santomera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Santomera
Santomera
1/4/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cartagena LU II46%
×Draw24%
Santomera30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena LU II
1.69
Santomera
1.33

Cartagena LU II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Cartagena LU II
1.47
Santomera
1.68

allows per match

Cartagena LU II
0.98
Santomera
1.91

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par
Santomera+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

Santomera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw
70%
Cartagena LU II or Santomera
76%
Draw or Santomera
54%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
24%
Santomera wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
82%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
50%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
24%
Santomera 1+ goals
74%
Santomera 2+ goals
38%
Santomera 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
60%
Santomera (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Santomera away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + Santomera defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Santomera attack 1.68 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more
46%
level
24%
Santomera scores more
30%

Cartagena LU II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena LU II vs Santomera

Cartagena LU II and Santomera drew 4-4 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 4, 2026.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.