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Santomera vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santomera
Santomera
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bala Azul
Bala Azul
12/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Estadio El Limonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santomera43%
×Draw27%
Bala Azul29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santomera
1.34
Bala Azul
1.05

Santomera creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Santomera
1.38
Bala Azul
0.90

allows per match

Santomera
1.21
Bala Azul
1.31

finishing

Santomera+0.00on par
Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santomera ↓

Bala Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santomera or draw
71%
Santomera or Bala Azul
73%
Draw or Bala Azul
57%

Winning margin

Santomera wins by 2+
20%
Bala Azul wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santomera 1+ goals
74%
Santomera 2+ goals
39%
Santomera 3+ goals
15%
Bala Azul 1+ goals
65%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
28%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Santomera (draw refunded)
60%
Bala Azul (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santomera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santomera attack 1.38 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Santomera defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santomera scores more
43%
level
27%
Bala Azul scores more
29%

Santomera at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santomera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santomera vs Bala Azul

Santomera and Bala Azul drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Limonar in Santomera.