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Bala Azul vs Santomera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bala Azul
Bala Azul
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Santomera
Santomera
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Complejo Deportivo Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bala Azul44%
×Draw25%
Santomera31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bala Azul
1.52
Santomera
1.24

Bala Azul creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bala Azul
1.12
Santomera
1.68

allows per match

Bala Azul
0.80
Santomera
1.91

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par
Santomera+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

Santomera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw
69%
Bala Azul or Santomera
75%
Draw or Santomera
56%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+
22%
Santomera wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals
78%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
45%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
20%
Santomera 1+ goals
71%
Santomera 2+ goals
35%
Santomera 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)
58%
Santomera (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Santomera away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + Santomera defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

Santomera attack 1.68 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bala Azul scores more
44%
level
25%
Santomera scores more
31%

Bala Azul at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bala Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bala Azul vs Santomera

Bala Azul beat Santomera 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Mazarrón in Mazarrón.