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Santomera vs Alcantarilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Santomera
Santomera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
12/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Estadio El Limonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Santomera51%
×Draw26%
Alcantarilla23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santomera
1.48
Alcantarilla
0.90

Santomera creates 64% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Santomera
1.38
Alcantarilla
0.59

allows per match

Santomera
1.21
Alcantarilla
1.59

finishing

Santomera+0.00on par
Alcantarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santomera ↓

Alcantarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santomera or draw
77%
Santomera or Alcantarilla
74%
Draw or Alcantarilla
49%

Winning margin

Santomera wins by 2+
26%
Alcantarilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santomera 1+ goals
77%
Santomera 2+ goals
43%
Santomera 3+ goals
19%
Alcantarilla 1+ goals
59%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
23%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santomera (draw refunded)
69%
Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santomera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Alcantarilla away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santomera attack 1.38 + Alcantarilla defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Alcantarilla attack 0.59 + Santomera defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Santomera scores more
51%
level
26%
Alcantarilla scores more
23%

Santomera at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Santomera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Santomera 3–0 Alcantarilla

Santomera beat Alcantarilla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Limonar in Santomera.