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Alcantarilla vs Santomera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Santomera
Santomera
4/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 31Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Alcantarilla35%
×Draw25%
Santomera40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcantarilla
1.42
Santomera
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

creates per match

Alcantarilla
0.94
Santomera
1.68

allows per match

Alcantarilla
1.35
Santomera
1.91

finishing

Alcantarilla+0.00on par
Santomera+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcantarilla ↓

Santomera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Alcantarilla or draw
60%
Alcantarilla or Santomera
75%
Draw or Santomera
65%

Winning margin

Alcantarilla wins by 2+
16%
Santomera wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Alcantarilla 1+ goals
76%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
41%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
17%
Santomera 1+ goals
78%
Santomera 2+ goals
45%
Santomera 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
47%
Santomera (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcantarilla at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Santomera away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcantarilla attack 0.94 + Santomera defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.42

Santomera attack 1.68 + Alcantarilla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alcantarilla scores more
35%
level
25%
Santomera scores more
40%

Santomera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santomera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Alcantarilla 1–4 Santomera

Santomera beat Alcantarilla 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero in Alcantarilla.