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Santo André U20 vs Mauá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Santo André U20
Santo André U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mauá U20
Mauá U20
Paulo Amorim 37'
J. Carvalho 22'
K. Maria 68'
6/7/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Bruno José Daniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santo André U2047%
×Draw24%
Mauá U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santo André U20
1.71
Mauá U20
1.28

Santo André U20 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Santo André U20
1.63
Mauá U20
0.61

allows per match

Santo André U20
1.95
Mauá U20
1.78

finishing

Santo André U20+0.00on par
Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santo André U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Santo André U20 or draw
71%
Santo André U20 or Mauá U20
76%
Draw or Mauá U20
53%

Winning margin

Santo André U20 wins by 2+
25%
Mauá U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santo André U20 1+ goals
82%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
51%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
24%
Mauá U20 1+ goals
72%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
37%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
62%
Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santo André U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santo André U20 attack 1.63 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + Santo André U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santo André U20 scores more
47%
level
24%
Mauá U20 scores more
29%

Santo André U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santo André U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
J. Carvalho
37'
Paulo Amorim
68'
K. Maria

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Santo André U20 2–1 Mauá U20

Santo André U20 beat Mauá U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 7, 2024.

Goals: J. Carvalho (22'), Paulo Amorim (37'), K. Maria (68').

The match was played at Estádio Bruno José Daniel in Santo André, São Paulo.