Mauá U20 1–2 Santo André U20: Result & Stats

Mauá U20

FT

1 – 2

Santo André U20

5/3/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mauá U2042%

×Draw25%

Santo André U2033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mauá U20Expected goals in this matchSanto André U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.28

Mauá U20

1.48

Santo André U20

1.28

Mauá U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

1.47

creates per match

1.50

1.06

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Mauá U20

1.47

Santo André U20

1.50

allows per match

Mauá U20

1.06

Santo André U20

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mauá U20+0.00on par

Santo André U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauá U20 ↓

Santo André U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mauá U20 or draw

67%

Mauá U20 or Santo André U20

75%

Draw or Santo André U20

58%

Winning margin

Mauá U20 wins by 2+

20%

Santo André U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mauá U20 1+ goals

77%

Mauá U20 2+ goals

43%

Mauá U20 3+ goals

19%

Santo André U20 1+ goals

72%

Santo André U20 2+ goals

37%

Santo André U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)

56%

Santo André U20 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauá U20 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Santo André U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauá U20 attack 1.47 + Santo André U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Santo André U20 attack 1.50 + Mauá U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mauá U20 scores more

42%

level

25%

Santo André U20 scores more

33%

Mauá U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mauá U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff