Santo André U20 4–3 Jabaquara U20: Result & Stats

Santo André U20

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Jabaquara U20

Unknown 63', 58', 28', 18'

Unknown 90+2', 80', 53'

5/16/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Bruno José Daniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santo André U2052%

×Draw22%

Jabaquara U2026%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santo André U20Expected goals in this matchJabaquara U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.33

Santo André U20

1.94

Jabaquara U20

1.33

Santo André U20 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.63

creates per match

0.71

1.95

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Santo André U20

1.63

Jabaquara U20

0.71

allows per match

Santo André U20

1.95

Jabaquara U20

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santo André U20+0.00on par

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santo André U20 ↓

Jabaquara U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Santo André U20 or draw

74%

Santo André U20 or Jabaquara U20

78%

Draw or Jabaquara U20

48%

Winning margin

Santo André U20 wins by 2+

29%

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Santo André U20 1+ goals

86%

Santo André U20 2+ goals

58%

Santo André U20 3+ goals

30%

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

74%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

38%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Santo André U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santo André U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Jabaquara U20 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santo André U20 attack 1.63 + Jabaquara U20 defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.94

Jabaquara U20 attack 0.71 + Santo André U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Santo André U20 scores more

52%

level

22%

Jabaquara U20 scores more

26%

Santo André U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Santo André U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

24'

28'

53'

58'

63'

66'

80'

90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff