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Jabaquara U20 vs Santo André U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Jabaquara U20
Jabaquara U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Santo André U20
Santo André U20
F. G. dos Santos Silva 90'
T. T. Tairon 41'
Gustavo Paulo 88' (pen)
Rafael 57'
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jabaquara U2036%
×Draw26%
Santo André U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jabaquara U20
1.29
Santo André U20
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

creates per match

Jabaquara U20
1.07
Santo André U20
1.50

allows per match

Jabaquara U20
1.13
Santo André U20
1.50

finishing

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par
Santo André U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara U20 ↓

Santo André U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jabaquara U20 or draw
63%
Jabaquara U20 or Santo André U20
74%
Draw or Santo André U20
64%

Winning margin

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+
16%
Santo André U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals
72%
Jabaquara U20 2+ goals
37%
Jabaquara U20 3+ goals
14%
Santo André U20 1+ goals
73%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
38%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara U20 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Santo André U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara U20 attack 1.07 + Santo André U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Santo André U20 attack 1.50 + Jabaquara U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jabaquara U20 scores more
36%
level
26%
Santo André U20 scores more
37%

Santo André U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santo André U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
T. T. Tairon
57'
Rafael
88'
Gustavo PauloPenalty
90'
F. G. dos Santos Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jabaquara U20 vs Santo André U20

Jabaquara U20 and Santo André U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

Goals: T. T. Tairon (41'), Rafael (57'), Gustavo Paulo (88' pen), F. G. dos Santos Silva (90').

The match was played at Estádio Espanha in Santos, São Paulo.