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Santo André U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Santo André U20
Santo André U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Desportivo Brasil U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
J. Carvalho 48'
Barbara 61'
7/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 4Estádio Bruno José Daniel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Santo André U2037%
×Draw23%
Desportivo Brasil U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santo André U20
1.62
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Santo André U20
1.63
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.43

allows per match

Santo André U20
1.95
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.61

finishing

Santo André U20+0.00on par
Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santo André U20 ↓

Desportivo Brasil U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Santo André U20 or draw
60%
Santo André U20 or Desportivo Brasil U20
77%
Draw or Desportivo Brasil U20
63%

Winning margin

Santo André U20 wins by 2+
18%
Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Santo André U20 1+ goals
80%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
48%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
22%
Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals
82%
Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals
50%
Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santo André U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Desportivo Brasil U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santo André U20 attack 1.63 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.43 + Santo André U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santo André U20 scores more
37%
level
23%
Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more
40%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
J. Carvalho
61'
Barbara
90+6'
Octavio Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Santo André U20 1–1 Desportivo Brasil U20

Santo André U20 and Desportivo Brasil U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 26, 2024.

Goals: J. Carvalho (48'), Barbara (61').

The match was played at Estádio Bruno José Daniel in Santo André, São Paulo.