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Desportivo Brasil U20 vs Santo André U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Desportivo Brasil U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Santo André U20
Santo André U20
Octavio Silva 61'
S. Pinheiro 45+4'
Gustavo Paulo 22'
7/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 3Centro de Treinamento Desportivo Brasil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Desportivo Brasil U2047%
×Draw24%
Santo André U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.71
Santo André U20
1.31

Desportivo Brasil U20 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.92
Santo André U20
1.50

allows per match

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.12
Santo André U20
1.50

finishing

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par
Santo André U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Brasil U20 ↓

Santo André U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Desportivo Brasil U20 or draw
71%
Desportivo Brasil U20 or Santo André U20
76%
Draw or Santo André U20
53%

Winning margin

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+
25%
Santo André U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals
82%
Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals
51%
Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals
24%
Santo André U20 1+ goals
73%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
38%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Brasil U20 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.12 · 25 matches

Santo André U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.92 + Santo André U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Santo André U20 attack 1.50 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more
47%
level
24%
Santo André U20 scores more
29%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Gustavo Paulo
45+4'
S. Pinheiro
61'
Octavio Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Desportivo Brasil U20 vs Santo André U20

Desportivo Brasil U20 beat Santo André U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 19, 2024.

Goals: Gustavo Paulo (22'), S. Pinheiro (45+4'), Octavio Silva (61').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Desportivo Brasil in Porto Feliz, São Paulo.