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Santiago Wanderers vs Union San Felipe — Primera B 2026

Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Wanderers
Preview
16:30
Union San Felipe
Union San Felipe
7/25/2026Primera BPrimera B · Round 17
Big match
50%
Santiago Wanderers
model favours
50%25%25%

Santiago Wanderers score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Santiago Wanderers50%
×Draw25%
Union San Felipe25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago Wanderers
1.60
Union San Felipe
1.04

Santiago Wanderers creates 54% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 114 away

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.64
Union San Felipe
1.00

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.07
Union San Felipe
1.57

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par
Union San Felipe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Union San Felipe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw
75%
Santiago Wanderers or Union San Felipe
75%
Draw or Union San Felipe
50%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+
26%
Union San Felipe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals
80%
Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals
47%
Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals
22%
Union San Felipe 1+ goals
65%
Union San Felipe 2+ goals
28%
Union San Felipe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)
67%
Union San Felipe (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 88 matches

Union San Felipe away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.64 + Union San Felipe defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Union San Felipe attack 1.00 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more
50%
level
25%
Union San Felipe scores more
25%

Santiago Wanderers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Santiago Wanderers sit 2, Union San Felipe 13 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Wanderers
LLLLD
Felipe
DLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Santiago Wanderers host Union San Felipe

July 25, 2026: Santiago Wanderers take on Union San Felipe in Primera B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.