Santiago Wanderers 2–0 Union San Felipe

Santiago Wanderers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Union San Felipe

11/15/2023

Primera B · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Santiago Wanderers50%

×Draw25%

Union San Felipe25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago WanderersExpected goals in this matchUnion San Felipe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.04

Santiago Wanderers

1.58

Union San Felipe

1.04

Santiago Wanderers creates 52% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 122 away

1.61

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.61

Union San Felipe

1.00

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.08

Union San Felipe

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Union San Felipe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Union San Felipe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw

75%

Santiago Wanderers or Union San Felipe

75%

Draw or Union San Felipe

50%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

26%

Union San Felipe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

79%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

47%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

21%

Union San Felipe 1+ goals

65%

Union San Felipe 2+ goals

28%

Union San Felipe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

67%

Union San Felipe (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Union San Felipe away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.61 + Union San Felipe defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Union San Felipe attack 1.00 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more

50%

level

25%

Union San Felipe scores more

25%

Santiago Wanderers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff